Optimal portfolio choices to split orders during supply disruptions: An application of sport's principle for routine sourcing

Sourcing in the face of supply chain disruptions has been one most challenging tasks management, particularly when such occur due to natural calamities, as flood, fire, and earthquake, affecting both primary backup suppliers. Invariably, lead reduced from supplier, encouraging supplier place fresh orders with In order mitigate adverse effect disruption, this article we use concepts underlying well-known Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method, used cricket, revise target decide a for supplier. We simulated disruption scenarios an experimental setting by conducting two-round questionnaire survey among 300 purchase managers. The means variances participants’ estimates probabilities meeting revised targets within scheduled time various model-generated were find risk preferences. second-round survey, participants, clustered groups 10, ranked their own These ranks optimal portfolio choices. Finally, validated theoretical predictions options using two approaches—one, at group level estimating within- between-group preferences buyers, and, two, aggregate level, considering all fitting quantile regression model results, preference structures different quantiles relative risk–return trade-off distributions.